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Electricity demand will decline over the next 30 years

The Chinese academy of social sciences recently released a research report on China's energy outlook 2018-2050.China's overall energy demand has peaked, the report said.Electricity demand will also decline over the next 30 years.

According to the report, it is predicted that China's total energy demand will drop to 4.47 billion metric tons of coal by 2020 and 4.18 billion metric tons of coal by 2030. By 2050, it will further drop to 3.87 billion metric tons of coal and basically stabilize.In terms of electricity consumption, with the end of industrialization and urbanization, the demand for high-energy commodities will decrease, and the demand for electricity will also decrease in the next 30 years, which is expected to decrease from about 6.4 trillion kWh in 2017 to 4.47 trillion kWh in 2050.

In this case, there is no doubt that China will have excess power capacity. At present, the northeast, the bohai sea and the southwest have already had excess power. In the future, with the continuation of the new normal, the report believes that further excess power is almost certain.

It is worth noting that natural gas has become China's fastest growing energy product in recent years, driven by China's policy of reducing coal and increasing gas supply.China's gas consumption will continue to grow rapidly over the next 30 years, the report said.China's consumption of natural gas is expected to grow to more than 800 billion cubic metres by 2050, raising its share of primary energy consumption to more than 25 per cent.Based on this demand forecast, China's energy import demand will also gradually shift from oil to natural gas in the next 30 years. By 2050, China's import of natural gas is expected to increase to more than 630 billion square meters and its import dependency will reach 78.5 percent.